In a world shaped by uncertainty, scenario analysis empowers businesses to prepare, not just react. This course strengthens your ability to identify, assess, and manage emerging risks using forward-looking tools and structured scenario thinking.

Overview

This practical program helps risk and business professionals build capabilities in scenario-based risk management. You’ll learn how to classify risk types, map risks using heat maps, and challenge assumptions through structured stress testing. By the end of the course, you’ll be confident in using scenario planning as a tool to strengthen resilience and strategic decision-making.

  On completion of the course, you will be able to:

• Distinguish between traditional and emerging risks
• Use heat maps and matrices to assess risk impact and likelihood
• Apply scenario analysis to challenge business assumptions
• Integrate scenario thinking into ongoing risk reviews

Who should attend

 This course is ideal for professionals in both first and second lines of defense who are responsible for identifying and assessing risk:

• Risk and Compliance Managers
• Business Continuity Officers
• Internal Auditors
• Strategy and Planning Teams
• RCSA Practitioners
• ESG and Operational Risk Leads

Methodology

The course blends foundational learning with real-world case scenarios and a collaborative group exercise. Participants will simulate an emerging risk event, develop scenario outcomes, and present mitigation strategies in teams, promoting critical thinking and practical application.

Trainer

Led by a senior enterprise risk specialist with deep experience in emerging risk frameworks, scenario design, and strategic resilience planning across the financial, public, and digital sectors. The trainer brings both technical knowledge and practical case insights to every session.

Module – 1

Understanding Risk and Its Role in Decision-Making.

• Definitions: risk vs. uncertainty
• Diversifiable vs. non-diversifiable risks
• Why managing risk matters to business sustainability
• How risk influences operational and strategic decisions

Module – 2

Types and Categories of Risk.

• Overview of risk categories: physical, financial, operational, strategic, compliance
• Tangible vs. intangible risks
• Internal vs. external risks
• Real-life examples in various industries

Module – 3

Measuring and Mapping Risk.

• Risk measurement: frequency vs. severity
• Risk matrix: Likelihood × Impact
• Risk heat maps: identifying high-priority areas
• Comparing current risk posture with target tolerance

 Module – 4

Introduction to Scenario Analysis.

• What is scenario analysis?
• Differences from forecasting and contingency planning
• Benefits: stress-testing, awareness, resilience planning
• Examples of successful scenario planning applications

Module – 5

Identifying and Managing Emerging Risks.

• What are emerging risks? Definitions and characteristics
• Examples: AI misuse, ESG-related risks, geopolitical instability, digital disruption
• Why traditional risk models may miss emerging risks
• Early warning signals and horizon scanning techniques

Module – 6

Stress Testing Business Assumptions.

• Why stress testing is essential for risk planning
• Identifying key business assumptions and variables
• Applying extreme but plausible scenarios
• Interpreting stress-test results for decision-making

    Module – 7

Building Scenario Thinking into Regular Risk Reviews.

• Integrating scenario planning into quarterly or annual risk reviews
• Embedding scenario prompts into RCSA and Board reports
• Scenario libraries: storing and reusing tested assumptions
• Collaboration between business units and risk functions

Module – 8                                               

Group Exercise – Simulate and Analyze a New Risk Scenario.

• Choose an emerging risk (e.g., cyber disruption or ESG backlash)
• Identify business impact areas (operations, finance, reputation)
• Develop plausible scenario outcomes
• Present mitigation or contingency strategies in small groups